Bradley Siderograph: archive since 2007

 

archive 2003-2006

 

Review 2015

The standard model had 11 dates in 2015, 10 of these 11 can already be judged, i.e. all with the exception of 12/11/15 (11/26/15 is still somewhat questionable).

Bradley-2015-Standard

Over the past 100 years the US indices could be used as the primary reference, however now in the end times this is no longer appropriate. Formerly the US was responsible for up to 50% of the global equity capitalization, while today the US share has already dropped to 30%, with the decline continuing. Needless to say, the siderograph is not associated with one special country. Instead, it has a connection to world events & the global equity market. The best proxy - when the US empire falters - appears to be the broadest available index, the FTSE All World Index (FAW), with 7000+ shares. Rading the Bradley siderograph with the standard window +/-4 days (extension window +/-1 week) the random odds of a hit are 30-40%, depending on the precise definition we use. This % level was beaten well, because only 4/15/15 & 10/9/15 were complete failures: hit ratio 80% (8 out of 10).

However, a deeper analysis reveals terrible problems with the good ol‘ Bradley… Of the 6 major lows since late 2014 not a *single* one was nailed by the standard siderograph. It was only useful for highs, a strange one-sidedness. To add insult to injury one should be aware that it is much more important to find the lows, because lows are almost always V-shaped. In contrast, equity tops are almost always rounding tops, with many retests within 1-3% (as in 2014/15 in the FAW index), so that timing is much less important. Moreover, there was one big empty zone: in the entire Q1/2015 there was not a single turn in the standard model. Bottom line: the performance 2015 of the standard model is quite meager. This is not really a surprise as:

  1. First there are 3 other Bradley models other than the standard model (in the premium area), which should be analyzed as a quartet. This quartet analysis showed 3 big timelines in the year 2015, the middle one called the 9/29/15 bear market bottom.
  2. Second, there are other methods to generate potential turning dates from the Bradley raw data.
  3. Third, in the hyper complex Amanita approach the Bradley is just one factor among hundreds.

 

Outlook 2016

In 2016 we have 10 dates in the standard model, which translates into one date every 5 weeks on average. The longest void (no turning date) is only 2 months, which is a better starting position than for the year 2015. Here are the 2016 signal dates:

  1. 1/6/16
  2. 2/5/16
  3. 3/11/16
  4. 5/11/16
  5. 6/3/16
  6. 7/19/16
  7. 9/19/16 & 9/28/16 (overlap)
  8. 10/19/16
  9. 11/3/16 & 11/15/16 (overlap)
  10. 12/28/16

Bradley-2016-standard

 

Bradley siderograph 2015

As an exception, in 2015 the standard model is identical with the 360° model. The match of both models depends on whether the planetary pairs are in the waxing (0-180°) or waning (180-360°) phase. The key date 2015 is 6/9/15, but 10/9/15 & 11/18/15 are also important. We also have another 8 weaker dates.

Bradley-2015-Standard

Interestingly, both geocentric models have 2 huge gaps of 3 months in 2015: Q1/2015, July-October 2015. These gaps are filled by 3 factors (available in the premium area):

  1. heliocentric models
  2. proprietary interpretation: There is another (completely unknown) method to get turning points out of the Bradley raw data.
  3. Amanita models: Note that the siderograph is just *one* average factor (no master factor) out of *hundreds* in the Amanita system. Most Amanita models consist of a 2-digit number of components:
    (a) The global liquidity model reflects the totally overlooked fact that about half of the trends in the 6 markets (equities, bonds, oil, precious, grains, currencies) are synchronized by global liquidity. One component for lows is Mercury retrograde, with the last instance being October 5: almost all markets had their key (or momentum) bottom 2014 between late September & mid-October.
    (b) A special application of global liquidity is the Amanita crash model: introduced in 2013 but improved considerably in 2014. In late September 2014 it had the last key hit before spring 2015. So it is no surprise this was the most bearish episode of the year in all 6 markets (against USD), partly even crashing with declines of up to 20-30%.
    (c) To my knowledge, the end times model & the LoC model are the only market prediction models that are *not* based on empirical patterns. Certain spiritual & biblical patterns are the base for the end times model, while LoC stands for Level of Consciousness, referring to my spiritual teacher David Hawkins (M.D., Ph.D.) who passed away on 9/19/12.
    (d) Over the past 2 months 3 new Amanita models have been introduced: secular/ historic models, monthly models & model of master factors. These new models are the biggest step of innovation & sophistication in 14 years of publishing the Amanita market letter! J The biggest insight offered by the new historic models is that the ongoing wealth destruction will not be over after 10 years but rather needs 20 years, mainly because of the interest rate high in the 2030s.

Note: The Amanita methodology is completely different than everything else available in this corner of the galaxy. This is great but entails the disadvantage that at (least) 3-6 months reading by newcomers is needed to get a basic understanding.

 

Bradley siderograph 2014 

Let’s start with an analysis of 2014: the Dow Jones had a slightly better fit than the S&P 500. For the year 2014 the model showed 3 main dates (bold), and all 3 nailed major highs precisely (+/-1 trading day):

  1. 1/1/14: 3-12 month high 12/31/13
  2. 7/16/14: 1-3 month high 6/17/14
  3. 11/20/14: high 11/21/14 (not significantly taken out)

Bradley-Standard-2014

The 7 weaker dates produced only 2 hits, yet also precise (+/- 1 trading day):

  1. 4/6/14: Dow high 4/4/14
  2. 10/16/14: Dow low 10/16/14

Bradley-2014-Dow

It’s eye-catching that 4 of the 5 hits (80%) had the opposite polarity, i.e. Bradley lows -> stock market highs, Bradley high –> stock market lows. Only the Bradley high of 7/16/14 was also an index top. This effect was already discussed years ago: it still works, but is weak on average. With random odds being of 50:50 this interpretation seems to work in 60% of the cases, beating chance by a meager 10% or so. That’s why I still recommend to dismiss the polarity of a Bradley turn (high or low) entirely. Only the dates really count, especially those printed bold.

 

Bradley siderograph 2013

Bradley1

In 2013 we only had 4 resp. 5 turns, which have worked quite well, as the past 3 ones nailed not just 1-3 month extremes but even 3-12 month extremes in the standard window +/- 4 calendar days (albeit not in all indices). In late January we had 2 Bradley dates (1/20 & 1/29) in the overlap window +/- 1 week, therefore only the more important 1/29 date worked (bold in the chart). So far 11/3/13 is still questionable: depending on the index & tolerance (nominal or significant) you can draw different conclusions. Note: the editorial deadline for this newsletter was 11/15/13. By default these 5 main indices are used for the analysis: SPX, DJI, NDX - DAX, EuroStoxx. The 4 dates of 2013 (the Bradley polarity high or low is almost meaningless):

  1. 1/29: highs 1/30-2/1
  2. 6/22: major lows 6/23-6/24
  3. 10/8: major lows 10/7-10/9
  4. 11/3: ???

Bradley2

Bradley3

Bradley 2014

The Bradley standard model 2014 looks quite streamlined (the other 3 Bradley models are reserved for premium subscribers). It shows 3 major reversals: 1/1/2014, 7/16/2014, 11/20/2014.

Bradley4

Google Trends (Link) showed a very high search volume for siderograph from October 2011 through January 2013. Much interest for an indicator almost always means that you should give little weight to it, as the crowd is always attracted by the wrong & unimportant – this is simply part of the divine play (“lila”). If the crowd thinks that something is important then it is not important in reality & vice versa. So it is no surprise that the Bradley dates were more or less useless between late 2011 & early 2013, hardly beating random odds! However, since early 2013 there is almost zero interest in the Bradley, which means that it was should be hot again. This perfectly aligns with the amazing performance since the 1/29/13 turning point… And it also worked quite well during the 2010-11 period without any search volume.

Bradley5

Note: One can argue whether or not the isolated peak in July 2009 was an artifact, which also depends on your definition of ‘artifact’. At any rate, it was most likely caused by the free Amanita newsletter 6/30/09 discussing the Bradley. With a readership of 10,000+ the Amanita newsletter influences enough clicks to have an impact on Google Trends. Google Trends has a tremendous predictive power & is the meta indicator that influences the weighting of factors. Please find all Bradley texts since 2007 here: http://www.amanita.at/Interessantes/Artikel/detail.php?id=310.

Raw data for your own research

Premium subscribers of Amanita Market Forecasting get the data of the four Bradley models for the period 1990-2020 as a .txt file (click here to subscribe). Another possibility: you calculate the data yourself with the aid of a financial astrology  software - please go to the software-page. I mainly use the Market Trader von Alphee Lavoie, which is too expensive for the average hobby researcher though.

 

Review 2013

Bradley1

In 2013 we only had 4 resp. 5 turns, which have worked quite well, as the past 3 ones nailed not just 1-3 month extremes but even 3-12 month extremes in the standard window +/- 4 calendar days (albeit not in all indices). In late January we had 2 Bradley dates (1/20 & 1/29) in the overlap window +/- 1 week, therefore only the more important 1/29 date worked (bold in the chart). So far 11/3/13 is still questionable: depending on the index & tolerance (nominal or significant) you can draw different conclusions. Note: the editorial deadline for this newsletter was 11/15/13. By default these 5 main indices are used for the analysis: SPX, DJI, NDX - DAX, EuroStoxx. The 4 dates of 2013 (the Bradley polarity high or low is almost meaningless):

  1. 1/29: highs 1/30-2/1
  2. 6/22: major lows 6/23-6/24
  3. 10/8: major lows 10/7-10/9
  4. 11/3: ???

Bradley2

Bradley3

The Bradley standard model 2014 looks quite streamlined (the other 3 Bradley models are reserved for premium subscribers). It shows 3 major reversals: 1/1/2014, 7/16/2014, 11/20/2014.

Bradley4

Google Trends (Link) showed a very high search volume for siderograph from October 2011 through January 2013. Much interest for an indicator almost always means that you should give little weight to it, as the crowd is always attracted by the wrong & unimportant – this is simply part of the divine play (“lila”). If the crowd thinks that something is important then it is not important in reality & vice versa. So it is no surprise that the Bradley dates were more or less useless between late 2011 & early 2013, hardly beating random odds! However, since early 2013 there is almost zero interest in the Bradley, which means that it was should be hot again. This perfectly aligns with the amazing performance since the 1/29/13 turning point… And it also worked quite well during the 2010-11 period without any search volume.

Bradley5

Note: One can argue whether or not the isolated peak in July 2009 was an artifact, which also depends on your definition of ‘artifact’. At any rate, it was most likely caused by the free Amanita newsletter 6/30/09 discussing the Bradley. With a readership of 10,000+ the Amanita newsletter influences enough clicks to have an impact on Google Trends. Google Trends has a tremendous predictive power & is the meta indicator that influences the weighting of factors. Please find all Bradley texts since 2007 here: http://www.amanita.at/Interessantes/Artikel/detail.php?id=310.

 

2012

The Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. is still the favorite of site visitors, below please find the standard model for 2013.

file 1384120747-c50e446511a46bfd09588e3490f1e858

It's eye-catching in the chart 2013 that there are many tiny spikes. Actually one could mark 11 dates in the standard model between February & June 2013. With a window of +/- 1 weekIn the Amanita prognostications, timing is almost always more important, reliable & precise compared to prices. When not explicitly stated otherwise, the standard window for all time projections is +/- 1 week, with the exception of the Amanita pivots (+/- 1-2 days). almost every day would be marked as a potential turn - which is meaningless. Moreover, with such flat counter-trends even a tiny change in the formula leads to date change, making the turning dates not statistically not robust at all.

file 1384120884-14004392fe5c8f62bb027e8bfb88c7d6

In the past 5 years the long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. reversals (at least 1.5 year-extremes) in the Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. mostly had the correct polarity - albeit with a window of +/- 1 month (or even more). Examples:

From Q2/2009 until early 2012 we had a strong negative correlation of intermediate-term reversals, i.e. ‘normal' Bradley highs were lows in stocks & the other inflation marketsToday the Inflation markets are commodities & equities, which usully have a high correlation with global liquidity. (and vice versa). This ‘paradoxical' reaction seems to be correlated with the crack-up boom that started in the second quarter of 2009. ‘Crack-up boom' is a paradoxical oxymoron (like ‘irregular pattern') for a paradoxical time. With the fading out of the crack-up boom in late 2011/ early 2012 this correlation is also fading now. In the period of transition 2012/13 we presumably neither have a reliable positive nor negative correlation, i.e. only the dates count (without a polarity).

In 2011 the Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. could not beat random probabilities by much, when taking all turning points into considerations. Only the major turning points (bold & large in the chart) continue to be valuable timing tools *today*.

Strictly speaking the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. dates are potential turning dates, bifurcation points in the language of chaos theory. In addition to the standard model there are 3 other models in the premium area, which may be quite different. All Bradley analyses in the free area since 2007 can be found here.

2010

This is the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. standard model (original formula of Donald Bradley) from December 2010 through January 2012:

file 1291214607-2eec53d62b1d99e9cd7649585cec31c8

In 2011 there are 3 major turning points:

The other Bradley dates are:

Strictly speaking the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. dates are potential turning dates, bifurcation points in the language of chaos theory. In addition to the standard model there are 3 other models in the premium area. The 3 other models are different than the standard model discussed. All Bradley analyses in the free area since 2007 can be found here.

The standard model was - at least in the traditional interpretation - not very useful in 2010 (the Amanita premium area offers additional insights). In 2011 it should be even less useful:

2010

The Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. as the darling of readers hasn't been covered for a year (it was only touched briefly once), so let's discuss it today as I want to share some new insights with you.

What has happened since the last Bradley comment 6/30/09? The standard model 2010:

file 1256650526-9bf84af55a15ebf66d1e8ed01eec35db

In the chart below please find the major turns of the standard model in large letters, the minor turns in small letters:

  1. 7/14/09: important low July 7-10 (inaccuracy: -4 days)
  2. 9/14-15/09: minor high 9/16-22 (inaccuracy: +1 day)
  3. 10/22-23/09: high 10/19-21 (inaccuracy: -1 day)
  4. 11/9/09: low 11/2/09 (inaccuracy: -7 days)
  5. 3/1/10: -
  6. 6/3/10: low 6/7/10 (inaccuracy: +4 days)
  7. 6/9/10: low 6/7/10 (inaccuracy: -2 days)
  8. 6/26/10
  9. 7/8/10
  10. 8/10/10

The (geocentric) standard siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. available in the free area has been rather disappointing since August 2009 and of little help for the stock markets. Of the 4 really important reversals during this time frame (high mid-January, low early February, high mid/ late April, low late May/ early June) the standard model only nailed the latter one. Instead the turning dates of the Bradley only coincided with minor turns in the stock indices, and in half of these cases a large window of 4-7 days on either side was needed.

Today the Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. is primarily an indicator for global liquidity, i.e. it is hardly specific for the indices. Actually it has worked better for the precious metals, for instance, as the Bradley date 3/1/10 that failed in equities nailed the intermediate-term high in gold/ silver & bonds in early May.

file 1277052761-94b496d0e55b71aa16b49de0f129c0a3

However, the heliocentric siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. (available in the premium area) has worked much better than the standard siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde.. The standard model is calculated from the perspective of the earth (geocentric), while the heliocentric model is calculated from the perspective of the sun. It's uncommon that the heliocentric model is stronger than the geocentric model. I believe that the reason is the solar cycle pointing up since the solar minimum in 2009. The number of sun spots is now the highest since 2006, which may mean that the solar perspective is getting more important.

6/30/09 Surprising insights into the Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde.

„Bradley" and „siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde." continue to be the most frequent search terms on http://www.amanita.at/, so the interest is still very high. Since the latest free comment on the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. dates back more than a half year, I'd like to dedicate this newsletter to the Bradley and present, among other factors, a small quantitative study with surprising results. The siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. can be found on many web pages but Amanita Market Forecasting is the only place to find this type of groundbreaking research!

The past turning dates were (standard window +/- 4 calendar days, sometimes up to +/- 1 weekIn the Amanita prognostications, timing is almost always more important, reliable & precise compared to prices. When not explicitly stated otherwise, the standard window for all time projections is +/- 1 week, with the exception of the Amanita pivots (+/- 1-2 days). - basis S&P 500 close):

In the past 12 months we had the following 5 major (multi-month) equity market reversals:

file 1248807923-71d7e54248df555fdf12d61cf8532af9

Boy, oh boy! None of the 5 was caught by the standard model (although the heliocentric model did a much better job)! So the Bradley recognized only minor reversals in the past year. Especially painful and irritating for many is that the bear market bottom in early March was missed. The premium subscribers of Amanita Market Forecasting were informed just in time, however, as 2 days after the March 6-9 low an update was sent out suggesting that probably a low of ‘epic importance' (low of 76.6 year cycle) had been formed, and a monster rally would be due. And as a matter of fact, we have meanwhile witnessed the biggest advance in 71 years. In a nutshell, the Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. is grossly overestimated (in its traditional interpretation). That's why in my work this model is just one of 20+ factors in the CSQN model.

Remaining turning points in 2009 (the Bradley 2010 is released in late 2009):

file 1248807948-ea398526af804cd57f389aa93dcdbf48

Of the past 5 turning points, the polarity was right twice (i.e. Bradley high = index high, Bradley low = index low) and 3 times wrong. This confirms the warning repeated all of the time, "The Bradley predicts turning points ONLY and not the polarity, i.e. a high in the chart may also be a low and vice versa."

However, that doesn't mean that the Bradley isn't saying anything at all about the direction of the financial markets, let me share some astonishing findings. I have calculated the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r) of the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. with oil, EUR/USD, SPX, gold, and what (latest data point: 6/12/09). Below please find the results for the geocentric and heliocentric model (geocentric means from the perspective of earth, heliocentric from the perspective of the sun).

correlation

geocentric model

N

crude oil

euro

SPX

gold

wheat

since 2007

57.6%

891

73.5%

74.9%

47.2%

29.2%

63.2%

since 2008

71.5%

529

78.2%

82.5%

74.6%

50.5%

71.5%

since 2009

57.2%

162

93.4%

71.2%

48.8%

39.8%

33.0%

mean:

62.1%

  

81.7%

76.2%

56.9%

39.8%

55.9%

correlation

heliocentric model

N

crude oil

euro

SPX

gold

wheat

since 2007

58.2%

891

76.9%

73.6%

64.8%

67.1%

8.7%

since 2008

76.7%

529

90.6%

91.1%

88.2%

76.9%

36.6%

since 2009

47.4%

162

79.5%

58.7%

43.2%

17.8%

37.9%

mean:

60.8%

  

82.3%

74.5%

65.4%

53.9%

27.7%

In the 2nd column please find the average for the periods "since 2007, "since 2008", and "since 2009", the reason is to give the newer data points more weight. At the bottom please find the mean for each market, e.g. the average heliocentric correlation r (CL, SP) = 0.823. Interpretation:

Conclusions from this little study:

Bradley 1852-2040

After this short-term view now to a very long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. one. Below please find the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. chart 1852-2040 (calculated with the „Market Trader" by Alphee Lavoie):

file 1248807971-7dea682d8fed551fd6448bb8f359a402

The formula assigns harmonic angles (60°, 120°) a positive value and disharmonic angles (90°, 180°) a negative value, the sum of all values is the chart as you know it. The lower, the worse the (economic) situation on average. The all-time low was in 1931 during the Great Depression, the model was also very low in 1875 after the crash of 1873, and in 2010 we are approaching the level of 1875. Isn't it interesting that the two historic models for the current situation are the years around 1931 and 1875? The Bradley low of the past 500 years was in the 1640s by the way, at the end of the Thirty Years' War (1618-1648) and after the first speculative bubble in history had burst (1637 tulip mania in Amsterdam). The reason for the low in 2010: the massive tension angles between the slow planets (T-square, partly even Grand Cross).

11/13/08 

 This is the standard model for 2009 (December 2008 - January 2010):

downloaded-c76f0e566a6b6693a68872076f5ee21b-1237137832.img

It has the following turning points:

Some Bradley model analysts would also include "micro spikes" but I strongly advise against that because that's not significant enough and should be interpreted as "white noise". For unknown reasons there are even minor differences between the different software programs that all use the original formula of Donald Bradley. While major turns in the Bradley chart are more or less identical you would get entirely different results if you zoom in too much.

2008

The Bradley hasn't been discussed for over a year, what was the impact of the Bradley dates since 2007?

downloaded-0388fe5b43921d932862a5b81717e9d0-1237137832.img

  1. 12/22, 2007 low: no intermediate-term reversal but short-term secondary high
  2. 3/8-9, 2008 high: intermediate-term low SPX 3/10/08 (deviation: + 1 day)
  3. 4/7/08 low: no intermediate-term reversal
  4. 4/27/08 high: no intermediate-term reversal SPX but intermediate-term top EuroStoxx 5/2/08 (deviation: +5 days)
  5. 5/24/08 low: intermediate-term high SPX 5/16-19, 2008 (deviation: -5 days)
  6. 6/7/08 high: no intermediate-term reversal SPX but intermediate-term top Nasdaq 100 index 6/5/08 (deviation: -2 days)
  7. 9/9/08 low: intermediate-term high SPX 9/2/08 (deviation: -7 days)
  8. 9/20/08 high: no intermediate-term reversal

We see that 3 of the 8 (38%) Bradley turns marked intermediate-term reversals in the main benchmark SPX, and another 2 Bradley dates were major reversals in another key index (EuroStoxx resp. NDX), which gives a total of 5 out of 8 (62%). However, these turning points were rather imprecise, 4 of the 5 turns came within +/- 5 days, once even the extended window +/- 7 days was used.

New research on the Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde.

The Bradley chart is always marked with the hint that the dates only show turning points and not polarity, i.e. a siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. low has almost the same odds of nailing a stock market high or a low (the opposite is true for siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. highs). Since late 2007 the same 50:50 pattern can be detected.

However, that doesn't mean that the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. is telling nothing about direction, even though the exact rules can only be determined with the aid of rigorous statistical testing. Since 1950 the Pearson correlation coefficient r (geo, helio, N=21.459) is at 2-3% which means that the correlation of the Bradley with the Dow Jones is zero, i.e. in general the daily direction (up or down) of the Bradley is not indicative for the stock market. The rule is that r can be between -1 and +1, with +1 meaning a perfect match and -1 a perfect inversion. Everything larger than r>0.7-0.8 (r2>0.5-0.6) is useful in principal, although one should focus on correlation coefficients of r>0.85 (r2>0.7).

However, everything depends on a moderating variable: whether the index is in a bull or bear market. Since 3/2008 r (geo, helio; N=210) = 76%, i.e. the Bradley has been quite useful in predicting the direction (up or down) of the Dow Jones. From 1/2002 until 6/2003 we had comparably emotional markets as since 2008 and the correlation was almost the same:  r (geo, N=520)=78.4% and r (helio, N=520)=67.6%. In the bear market 1973-74 we saw r (geo, helio, N=701) = 0.76 and thus again in the same region. In contrast, during the calm time 6/2003 - 3/2007 we had a quite negative (!) correlation: r (geo, N=1362) = -0.43 and  r (helio, N=1362) = -0.62. A negative correlation coefficient means that the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. and the Dow Jones tend to trade just inverted.

Somewhat exaggerated one could say: the dates of the Bradley do work regardless of the trend (bull or bear) whereas the direction of the Bradley only works in bear trends (in bull markets there is a weak bias for the stock market to do just the opposite than the Bradley). Because stock markets & commodities are both controlled by liquidity (equities are leading, commodities are following), the Bradley is getting an indicator for global liquidity in times like that and thus a indicates the direction of the stock markets in general.

How can it be explained that the market is paying more attention to astrological constellations in bad times than in good times (this observation is not restricted to the Bradley)? The more people are governed by fear (of financial losses, of economic troubles, unemployment and so on), the lower their consciousness and the lower their consciousness, the more they are governed by the constellations. In contrast, the more you are centered in yourself, the higher your consciousness and the more independent and free your become, which is true both for individuals and the crowd. Enlightenment can be defined as the theoretical condition (that may not be reached in reality) where you are only connected the divine and no longer with the stars.

10/17/07

In that article I want to introduce the Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. for 2008 and discuss this darling of many readers. By the way, the search engine Google lists amanita.at as the 1st entry for the search term "bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde.".

Most Bradley "fans" do overestimate the importance of the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde., in the Amanita forecasts it accounts for hardly more than 5%, there are a great many other (more) important factors. First I'd like to review the results of the standard model for the year 2007 (in the protected Amanita area there are more models and analyses on that topic):

 downloaded-648d8739464ac7a62130dfd767c063ee-1232531210.img

(the charts are based on the calculations of the software „Market Trader" by Alphee Lavoie)

Since May we have had only 2 reversals:

  1. 6/14/07: the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) did set an intermediate-term top in the standard window +/- 4 calendar days (top intraday 6/15/07, close 6/18/07)
    ---
  2. 8/26/07: Neither in the normal (+/- 4 days) nor in the extended window (+/- 1 week) did we set a trend change of intermediate-term magnitude (= a high or low for 1-3 months), not even a good short-term reversal for weeks. Now I have to explain an interpretation concept that was first introduced in 2006 in the protected area: the big Bradley turns (1-4 each year, printed bold in the chart) often have to be interpreted with a larger time window, namely up to +/- 2 weeks. The most important low of 2007 was Thursday 8/16/07 which was 6-7 trading days away from Sunday 8/26/07. The siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. is not sufficient as a stand-alone timing instrument for at least 2 reasons:
    (a) You need additional methods because the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. is only able to predict a part of the major stock market reversals (about half or less)
    (b) Even if the Bradley nails a stock market high or low, you still need further precision tools because a window of some weeks is simply too large. Claims of some Bradley "hobby analysts" that the turns are consistently correct to the day (= the Bradley date is also the peak or low date) are definitely wrong. Only mini-sized trends (lasting for days) are consistently reversed within a +/- 1 day window of the Bradley dates.

A good example to demonstrate the sometimes very large windows is the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. turn date 5/20/06, the key high 2006 in the equity market was formed May 5-10th which is (at least) 10 days from the Bradley date. Similarly, the Bradley point 11/28/06 roughly coincided with the key high of the 2nd half of the year on 12/15/06 but was off by more than 2 weeks.

downloaded-83379cdfb3edfc4e6513b1f10f662e3c-1232531210.img

After analyzing the past and clarifying some important interpretation rules I'd like to present the 2008 model now, the chart below shows December 2007 through January 2009:

downloaded-0388fe5b43921d932862a5b81717e9d0-1232531210.img

The 3 most important (bold printed) turning points are:

Other turning points are:

Related information: the TAO Indicator by Richard Schulz

Based on the work of Donald Bradley, Richard Schulz has developed the TAO indicator that - in contrast to the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. invented by Bradley - does predict the direction of the stock market (up or down) with a relatively high degree of statistical reliability (chance probability P<0.01%), i.e. not just turning points. A correlation of r=0.86 (r2=0.74) for the Russell 2000 is about the best you can expect from an isolated model.

The fact that the small cap index Russell 2000 is showing the best reaction doesn't surprise me. On the one hand, the small caps are less distorted by the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) market manipulation that is primarily acting over the SP futures. On the other hand, the small caps are a preferred playground for small investors and thus react more to the changes in crowd sentiment; the big boys are often not allowed to be exposed much to the small issues. Now the explanations by Richard Schulz, somewhat modified by myself:

Stock prices and astrological aspects are two independent variables, which qualifies them for a Pearson product-moment correlation study. I have modified Bradley's work:

1) I use a specific, uniform aspectarian for each planetary aspect. It doesn't matter whether it's Venus trine Saturn or Mars trine Jupiter- both trines receive the same positive value. The aspectarian is based upon a scientific formulation which sums harmonics and creates a zeroed oscillator.

2) I weight the various planetary aspects with a factor between 0.00 and 1.00. Mars in aspect to Jupiter has much more quantitative influence than Venus in aspect to Pluto. These weights are also specific and quantified.

3) I mathematically sum these weighted totals twice each week.

4) Then I take these biweekly totals and apply mathematical moving averages and summations to them. The major end result is the TAO (technical aspect oscillator). As a psychological indicator, when the TAO is positive and rising, people's attitudes and outlook are the most optimistic. When the TAO is negative and falling, the attitudes are the most negative.

5) I then correlate the stock indices with the TAO using the Pearson Product-Moment Correlation test. After this test is run, the result is the Pearson r, a value between -1.00 and +1.00. If the Pearson r is close to +1.00, then there is nearly a perfect correlation between the two variables. I get the following correlations for the TAO average (N=692): Dow Jones r=+0.73; S&P 500 r=+0.69, and Russell 2000 r=+0.86 (the quick TAO is considerably weaker). These Pearson r values are highly significant to a greater than 1 in 10,000 chance against being a random distribution. This demonstrates, mathematically, that it is very likely that the TAO is interrelated with stock market prices.

It is to be noted, however, that correlation is not causation. The correlation between the TAO and equity prices is just one useful observation among many. The stock market has, can and will move against the TAO for extended periods of time.

Current interpretation: the TAO is bullish from September through November 2007.

10/5/07

The Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. was discussed the last time on October 5, 2006, so it's time to dedicate an article to this "darling" of many readers. To make my arguments understandable, I have to start with some general or even long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. explanations first. Let me stress that since 2006 I am probably THE biggest stock market bull on the planet. To my knowledge, no one else has given similar (let alone higher) price targets (that means in nominal terms). This radical re-orientation was caused by a research project in 2006 that examined the astrological and cyclical signifiers of inflations and state bankruptcies of the past 2,000 years.

The super-bullish market environment since 2006 was anticipated by few and during the quick correction in March 2007 even dyed-in-the-wool bulls threw the towel and prepared for a "healthy consolidation". Needless to say that since March the indices have been skyrocketing. Admittedly, the bears have excellent fundamental reasons why the equity markets should turn down soon. According to the official numbers, the US economy has grown by only 1.3% in the 1st quarter 2007, in the preceding 3 quarters not much more than 2%. Of course, you have to take into consideration that the official US statistics are massaged heavily, according to the top analyst John Williams (link) the GDP growth rate is overstated by more than 4%, so you know that the US economy has been in a recession since the 2nd quarter 2006, since early 2007 even in a very serious recession.

Without doubt, the widely discussed collapse of the US housing markets contributes a lot since almost all of the "honest" growth of the largest economy of the world has been contributed by the housing sector. The ongoing recession is no surprise, I warned already of the Jupiter-Pluto depression cycle due in 2007/8 as soon as 2005 (article). This cycle has worked like a clockwork since the 19th century and always indicated very hard times for the economy. With high odds, 2006 was the onset of a depression in the US, e.g. some (less manipulated) leading indicators are in a worse shape now than in 2000 before the serious recession (and stock market crash) began.

Frequently, fundamentalists also look at the technical situation (especially sentiment) where some of them make a catastrophic mistake in their assessment that can be summarized as follows: "all others are bullish, I am the only 'lonesome' bear that remains rational". Even worse, sometimes top forecasters with an admirable track record are counted as "contrary indicators", and in the end these claims are marketed as an "analysis".

This fairly typical error in sentiment analysis is explained in the article "A criticism of the contrary approach". We must accept that the human perception is so error-prone that you have to rely primarily (or even exclusively) on quantitative-statistical indicators. Anecdotal stories (e.g. "forecaster X has turned bullish, so the markets must go down soon") are nice to read and often quite revealing but they must never be the focus of sentiment analysis.

I track a large number of statistical sentiment indicators and have to state that I have almost never seen a monster rally being accompanied by such a pervasive skepticism. Sentiment indicators have to be always interpreted in the light of the market action, and if a series of new all-time highs in the Dow Jones isn't able to turn the crowd bullish, then I don't know what will do it... At any rate, such an extra-ordinary set-up is very reliable, it's really a textbook example. I'd like to present a small sample of sentiment indicators used:

I could continue that list but I think my point is clear: this monster-sized rally is approached with an incredible skepticism, which of course is super-bullish from a contrary perspective. Still one should take into consideration that the notion of a "powerful bull market" is only true using nominal prices not adjusted for inflation. Using the true (unmanipulated) inflation numbers, the benchmark S&P 500 is in a bear market since January 2004, which is hardly noticed by anyone.

Now the 1-million-dollar question is how to reconcile the super-bearish fundamentals and the super-bullish sentiment indicators? I am convinced that the real reason is that we are in the early stages of a hyperinflationary depression. According to the "Privateer" edition #576, the Fed is already buying almost 20% of the US government bonds, a typical sign of a hyperinflation. Astute market observers recognize that the world financial system is on a journey with a "one way ticket only", we get deeper into irreversible territory every year.

The key to understand the situation is that in a hyperinflationary depression the stock indices rise faster the bigger (!!!) the economic problems are - because liquidity has to be created to "fix" the problem (presumably also over the offshore/ Caribbean activities of the Plunge Protection Team). To my knowledge, this paradox logic has been recognized by almost no one so far, let alone applied to forecast the markets. That's why the ongoing Jupiter-Pluto depression sends stocks higher almost in an "up-crash". Discussions with leading researchers in alternative medicine and healing have been offered me an explanation for the "global switching", i.e. what was formerly bullish is now bearish and vice versa... I am working on an article connecting many different areas, it appears that electromagnetic radiation plays a key role in this process.

So what has this got to do with the Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde.? Due to the hyperinflationary forces, the market has seen  only one intermediate-term or longer-term trend in the past year: UP, of course. In almost 12 months there was not a single correction that lasted much longer than 1 week. Something like that has almost never happened before in the history of the markets. Without doubt, these are symptoms of hyperinflation stage #2 where the powers that be are still successful in driving the excess liquidity into the "right" direction, i.e. to the stock markets (and partially also bond markets) which are driven higher and higher and higher and... The actual inflation calculated with the formula "monetary expansion minus GDP growth (or shrinking in this case)" already yields 2-digit inflation numbers for the US (somewhat lower in Europe). Then, in the final stage #3 the markets get out of control and rise almost daily. A historical example: at the end of the German hyperinflation in 1923 money bills were used to heat apartments simply because their monetary value was zero (50-billion mark notes were issued).

Unfortunately, as long as the stock markets don't return to the normal mode which they left in 2006 (as my statistical calculations show), intermediate-term market timing as supported by the Bradley model is of limited or no meaning whatsoever. The turning dates of the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. have to be interpreted with a standard window of +/- 4 calendar days and sometimes you have to give or take a full week, so it's clear that the Bradley can only be applied successfully for intermediate-term trends of 1 month or longer. In the current situation, trading is only meaningful on an intraday basis or very short-term (2-3 trading days) which requires intraday entry & exit signals - that can never be delivered by the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde..

Stage #2 of the hyperinflation has a very important impact on the markets: the totalitarian-fascist gleichschaltung (synchronization) on the political level emerging mainly from the US can also be detected  in the markets that more and more dance to the rhythm of liquidity, the individual market cycles are waning. The good thing about that is that since 2006 the Bradley has started to work better (!) for the other markets than for the stock indices. I believe the reason is that the other markets are still "normal" and not "crazy" and therefore have good trends in both directions, not just up.

downloaded-648d8739464ac7a62130dfd767c063ee-1236447098.img

Analysis of the past:

(1) Bradley turning point 11/28/06: this was the most powerful turning point in 2006, yet it didn't produce anything in the S&P 500, the benchmark for the Western stock markets. In contrast, the other 5 markets (precious metals, oil, currencies against US$, bonds, grains) all set intermediate-term tops holding for months in the days after 11/28/06.

(2) December 06 - February 07: no meaningful reversal in the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde., so the standard model was of no use whatsoever for a pretty long period of 3 months. This is a reminder that the Bradley can only be an assistant in market timing but does not perform a full job.

(3) Bradley turning points 3/5/07 & 3/14/07 (since these 2 dates are just 9 days apart and overlap, they are taken together): the SPX closing low 07 was exactly on 3/5/07; however, the only meaningful top so far this year (2/20/07) did not show up in the standard model (it was present in the other models though - which are reserved for Amanita subscribers). In precious metals & grains we had intermediate-term tops for months on 2/26-27 (deviation: 6-7 days), in the debt market there was a double top on March 7th & 13th (deviation: 1-2 days), and in JPY/USD a multi-month high was printed precisely on 3/5/07.

(4) Bradley turning point 4/20/07: in the stock indices no reaction whatsoever but in oil an 8-months high and in the euro a 2-year high on 4/27/07, in wheat a 4-months high on 4/26/07 (deviation: 6-7 days); on 4/16/07 a 2-months bottom in bonds (deviation: 4 days) and on 4/20 an intermediate-term precious metals top

(5) Bradley turning point 5/4/07: it's too early to make a reliable judgment but precious metals & currencies could form an intermediate-term bottom and stocks, bonds & oil an intermediate-term top (grains are mixed)

For 2007 only 4 key dates are left, please note that the amplitudes in the siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde. are larger for these turns, so they are more important on average (bold in the chart) then the dates of the first 5 months 2007 discussed above:

  1. 6/14/07
  2. 8/26/07
  3. 10/17/07
  4. 12/22/07