Major Bear Market Bottom 10/29/2002? (9/2/2002)

This article was first published with a similar content in November 2001, today I am presenting a revised and updated version. The basic hypothesis remains the same: the first leg of the bear-market that started in 2000 can end around 10/29/2002 at the earliest (but the downtrend can as well continue until mid-2003). This article demonstrates the interesting opportunities offered by my holistic approach.

Step 1: which year?

For these reasons I believe we will see a long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. bottom either in 2002 or in 2003. Let's check now which date is most likely in 2002.

Step 2: which months?

Good reasons to narrow the time frame to October-November 2002.

Step 3: which days?

For these reasons I do expect a major bear market low for the week from Monday 10/28 - Friday, 1/11/2002. My favorite is Tuesday, October 29, 2002 unless we see a real crash (losses 20-30% within days), in this case I project Friday, November 1, 2002 instead. A possible re-test is likely around 11/11/2002. This low, however, will be taken out by 2004 and probably already in 2003, i.e. it is not the end of the secularSecular means historic trends of 5-30years. bear market.