Major Bear Market Bottom 10/29/2002? (9/2/2002)

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This article was first published with a similar content in November 2001, today I am presenting a revised and updated version. The basic hypothesis remains the same: the first leg of the bear-market that started in 2000 can end around 10/29/2002 at the earliest (but the downtrend can as well continue until mid-2003). This article demonstrates the interesting opportunities offered by my holistic approach.

Step 1: which year?

• Samuel Benner:
  according to Benner important lows occur every 16/18/20 years (alternating)
  1987 + 16 = 2003 (+/- 1).
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• George Lindsay:
  according to Lindsay long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. troughs are frequently 13 years (+/- 1) after important crests (e.g. 1929-1942, 1968-1982).
  1990 + 13 =  2003 (+/- 1)
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• Fiboncci and Lucas numbers:
  quite often, long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. trend-changes are timingIn the Amanita prognostications, timing is almost always more important, reliable & precise compared to prices. The standard window for all time projections is +/- 1 week, with the exception of the Amanita pivots (+/- 1-2 days). by a Fibonacci- or Lucas number of years
  low 1949 +55 (Fibonacci) = 2004 (+/- 1)
  low 1974 +29 (Lucas) = 2003 (+/- 1)
  low 1982 +21 (Fibonacci) = 2003 (+/- 1)
  high/ low 1990 +13 (Fibonacci) = 2003 (+/- 1)
  low 1994 +8 (Fibonacci) = 2002 (+/- 1)
  high/ low 1998 +5 (Fibonacci) = 2003 (+/- 1)
  high 2000 +3 (Fibonacci) = 2003 (+/- 1)
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• Decennial cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets.:
  Bear markets often end in years with a 2 as the last digit (1932, 1942, 1982), i.e. 2002 in this case; sometimes in other years with an even last digit, esp. 4 (= 2*2, e.g. 1974) and 8 (=2*2*2, e.g. Tokyo 1998)
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• 4-year-cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets.:
  after troughs in 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, and 1998 the next is due in 2002-3

For these reasons I believe we will see a long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. bottom either in 2002 or in 2003. Let's check now which date is most likely in 2002.

Step 2: which months?

• Lows of major bear markets are often in the second half of the year
  historical examples (Dow Jones):
  bear market 1929-32 bottomed on July 8, 1932
  bear market 1973-74 bottomed on December 9, 1974
  bear market 1981-82 bottomed on August 10, 1982
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• Duration of major bear markets:
  I think that the most appropriate (magnitude, time) historical examples for the current bear market are the US from 1929-1932 and Japan from 1990-1992.
  Nikkei 225 1/1990-8/1992: duration 31 months
  Dow Jones Industrials 9/1929-7/1932: duration 34 months
  The high was in March 2000, so when we add 31-34 months we arrive at the October 2002 - January 2003 time frame.
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• 56-year panic cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets. as suggested by David McMinn:
  a financial panic is likely in fall 2002 (sequence 18)
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• Seasonal cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets.s:
  yearly low quite often in October-November
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• Market geometry:
  The major bottoms of this century were separated by about 7360 and. 9010 days which argues for the second half of October 2002.
  10/29/2002 is 7383 days from 8/12/1982 (start of the bull market of the 80ies and 90ies) and 9008 days from 3/1/1978 (4-year cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets. low).

Good reasons to narrow the time frame to October-November 2002.

Step 3: which days?

• major bottoms are usually found with 1-2 weeks of crucial angular connections between the outer planets (starting with Jupiter). In October and November 2002 there is only one that fits: the trine (120°) of Jupiter and Pluto which is exact on October 28. So the time windown can be narrowed to October 14 - November 11, 2002.
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• 8.6-year-cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets. (Pi-cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets. 3140 days) discovered by Martin Armstrong:
  next low due November 8, 2002 (+/- 12 days).
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• new moonThe moon has a major impact on the markets, the full moon is more important than the new moon. on Monday, November 4: important lows are frequently 2-8 days before a new moonThe moon has a major impact on the markets, the full moon is more important than the new moon. = Monday, October 28 - Friday, November 1
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• Market geometry 1:
  0.382 (minor of the golden section) of 9/4/1929 (top preceding the great depression) and 8/12/1982 (start of the bull market of the 80ies and 90ies) is exacltly on 10/31/2002.
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• Market geometry 2:
  1.272 is the square root of 1,618 (major of the golden section ) and a very important ratio in the financial markets. 1.272 of the time distance between 7/9/1932 (low after the great depression) and 10/20/1987 (low of the 1987 crash) is 11/2/2002.
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• Bradley siderographDer Bradley-Siderograph ist ein astrologisches Modell, welches von Donald Bradley in den 1940ern zur Aktienmarktprognose entwickelt wurde.: both the heliocetric and geocentric Bradleys indicate turns for 10/27-10/28.
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• The moonThe moon has a major impact on the markets, the full moon is more important than the new moon. is in the sign Virgo on Thursday, October 31 & Friday, November 1 (Virgo and Pisces are the most promiment signs for sell-off lows)
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• Friday, November 1, is day 7-27 in the lunar calendar of Chris Carolan
  explanation: the lunar calendar starts with the first new moonThe moon has a major impact on the markets, the full moon is more important than the new moon. after the spring equinox, the day of the new moonThe moon has a major impact on the markets, the full moon is more important than the new moon. is 1-1, the next 1-2, the second new moonThe moon has a major impact on the markets, the full moon is more important than the new moon. 2-1 etc. Sell-off lows (panics) almost always occur on these days of the lunar calendar: 6-27, 6-28, 7-27, 7-28

For these reasons I do expect a major bear market low for the week from Monday 10/28 - Friday, 1/11/2002. My favorite is Tuesday, October 29, 2002 unless we see a real crash (losses 20-30% within days), in this case I project Friday, November 1, 2002 instead. A possible re-test is likely around 11/11/2002. This low, however, will be taken out by 2004 and probably already in 2003, i.e. it is not the end of the secularSecular means historic trends of 5-30years. bear market.