Stellar performance measurement: the "missing link?" (5/2005)

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It's documented in the financial literature that the typically used time frames to measure the performance of forecasts or managed accounts (6 months - 5 years) are only a weak indicator for the future performance because they are not able to gauge the true intrinsic strength (above all, Jensen's alpha). E.g. Mark Hulbert shows that - without astrology - only a very long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. view of 10 years serves as a reliable indicator.

In this article I want to scrutinize that problem and suggest the astrological interpretation of performance indicators as the proverbial missing link to estimate the intrinsic strength much faster. Also, the possibilities of meta-forecasts are discussed, when is a service/ fund "hot", when it isn't? Which markets are in resonance, which aren't? The Austrian futures fund "Superfund" (formerly Quadriga) serves as an example.

The following explanations are without doubt relevant for everyone who is exposed with his own or other people's money or with forecasts: analysts, private and professional investors or traders, fund managers, market letter editors etc.

The basic problem

  Let's start with the following example: someone achieves an outperformance of 1% in a given year compared to the benchmark (or perhaps an absolute performance of +1%).

What do you make of that number? An outperformance of 1% per year is a modestly favorable result, because on average only 20-30% of all professionals (funds, market letters etc) beat the market (heavily depending on the market environment, in bear markets much more, in bull markets much less), and neither can you take an absolute gain of 1% for granted as the hedge fund indices show (again modified by the environment).

Every performance in the financial markets is penetrable with specific horoscopes, for individual persons it's clearly the day, time and location of birth, for financial institutions like mutual funds you take the first trade and to some degree also the incorporation horoscope, especially in the case of discretionary decision-making.

Now the salient point:

(1) if these +1% are achieved under very favorable constellations then this performance loses its positive meaning (and even becomes negative!) because with lucky constellations it's very easy to make profits and correct guesses, both in the markets and the casino. If a strong stellar tailwind doesn't result in more than +1% you can expect a performance curve that looks approximately like this:

(2) if, however, this +1% is achieved under very critical constellations it is in fact an outstanding (!!!) performance since with a real cosmic headwind hardly anyone can make money, so it is indeed a sign of strength. In this case the curve would resemble that model:

How to use this information?

1. you are able to understand the deeper ("esoteric") meaning of performance comparisons and can thus make better decisions.
Example: if a mutual fund has a bad year it's certainly a good idea to hold it in your portfolio if the cosmic influence was very challenging but it should be dumped immediately if the constellations were helpful.
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2. self-forecasts: every market participant is well advised to consider his own forecast, both profit and loss series are put into the right context, you can better assess your own performance and plan your market activities. Someone who has a day-time job and is trading as a hobby and to generate some additional income only needs to be active 20% of the time to arrive at 80% of the profits (as a rule of thumb).

The purpose of critical constellations is mainly to learn from mistakes and less to make money from speculations.

Example Superfund 

  I want to practically demonstrate these considerations with the aid of the Austrian Superfund (formerly Quadriga), this example was chosen for 4 reasons, because:

(1) ... almost 10 years of price history are available

(2) ... of the outstanding success since the incorporation in 1995, for instance the Superfund was ranked as the best futures fund over a 5-year period (2000-2005) in the noted MAC ranking, it received more than 40 other awards and has currently more than $1.5 billion under management. It also was the first alternative investment product for the retail customer.

(3) ... it is operating out of Vienna, Austria (like Amanita Market Forecasting)

(4) ... one of the 2 founders is well versed in astrology... (whatever conclusions you may draw thereof)

By no means it is intended to provide a full analysis in this article, I mainly want to highlight Saturn as a major factor (though just one of many), a complete analysis would get way beyond the scope of this article.

On the basis of the performance chart we see only 2 periods of extended weakness over the past 10 years where the fund didn't make a profit for more than app. 6 months: in the year 1996 and then again since 2003. It's amazing that one of the best funds in the world hasn't made any money for 2 years, how can you explain that?

The Superfund was first issued on March 8, 1986 with the sun-sign Pisces, time unknown. This is the horoscope for noon (Central European time):

Each of the 12 signs of the zodiac is assigned one of the 4 ancient elements:

• fire (F): Aries, Leo, Sagittarius

• earth (E): Taurus, Virgo, Capricorn

• air (L):: Gemini, Libra, Aquarius

• water (W): Cancer, Scorpio, Pisces

The elements do play an important part in astrology, particularly if there are major imbalances as in this case: the Superfund is dominated by the element water as this model shows (14 out of 29 points):

 Likewise, the planet Neptune (the water planet, Neptune is the sea god) is utterly strong, it is ruling the signs Pisces and Cancer:

Neptune is all-important for other reasons, too, among other factors because it is the apex of a T-square and one of the founders was born in the sign Pisces (February 26, 1969), and both founders are "watery".

Money is flowing energy and therefore governed by the element water. In the traditional Western astrology (that is "damaged" for several reasons) this is hardly recognized, in the Eastern mostly "unharmed" astrology this is well-known and water is associated with wealth (especially in feng shui that contains so many astrological elements).

A simple and yet pretty powerful prediction method is to use the passage (transit) of the "malefic" Saturn through the dominant signs, qualities, and elements as a sign warning of weakness periods. Saturn with its circulation period of about 30 years (= ca. 2.5 years for each of the 12 signs) plainly is the "bear and anti-speculation planet" as has been confirmed by thousands of tests.

Therefore, the Saturn transit through the water signs (mostly Cancer and Pisces) certainly is rather adverse, and the weakness times from the chart above exactly match this transit. In 1996 Saturn was in the water-sign Pisces and from mid-2003 through mid-2005 Saturn is transiting the sign Cancer.

Let me add a fine-analysis of the past 2 years where you had 3 corrections over a couple of months that have again been indicated by Saturn:

March-April 2003: Sun-Saturn square in the lunar-arc progression, transiting Saturn in aspect to the moon and to the radical Saturn, the helio-transit Pluto squares Sun & Moon.

April - August 2004: in June Neptune squared Saturn in the helio lunar-arc progression (Saturn-Neptune angles are the most difficult), May-July a strong Saturn activation in the transit, the helio chart Saturn was conjunct Venus in August

January - April 2005: major Saturn angles in the helio transit and the lunar-arc progression

Amanita Self-Forecast

  Needless to say that these theories are, of course, taken into consideration for Amanita-internal purposes. I even have to admit that these self-forecasts have become more and more important over the years, that's why I started to include them in the subscriber area in 2004 (which, at least to my knowledge, none of my financial astrologyFinancial astrology is the use of astrology to analze and forecast the financial markets. Here financial astrology is understood primarily as an empirical-statistical discipline. The probably first financial astrologer in history was Thales of Miletus who is viewed as the father of science and philosophy (together with Aristotle). With the aid of astrology Thales foresaw an excellent olive harvest, so he hired all olive presses that he lent out with a huge profit, which made him a rich man. colleagues does). In the 4-step model of market success this is point 4 that is still is capable of development (article).

When I started to study financial astrologyFinancial astrology is the use of astrology to analze and forecast the financial markets. Here financial astrology is understood primarily as an empirical-statistical discipline. The probably first financial astrologer in history was Thales of Miletus who is viewed as the father of science and philosophy (together with Aristotle). With the aid of astrology Thales foresaw an excellent olive harvest, so he hired all olive presses that he lent out with a huge profit, which made him a rich man. I was of the completely wrong opinion at the outset that the recognition of the danger´(e.g. a strong Saturn influence) is already the prevention or solution but I have learnt that even as a "man of the stars" you are by no means above that... As a metaphor I suggest the a weather forecast, even if it is correct you can't change the weather but only act accordingly (e.g. planning the day).

This also has a philosophical background, 5-10 years ago I was still coined by psychological astrology but after thousands of hours conducting research I have come to the conclusion that psychological astrology is, in part, "cowardice in the field" ;-) that lacks the courage and the sufficient empirical background to make concrete predictions.

And yes, neither is the timingIn the Amanita prognostications, timing is almost always more important, reliable & precise compared to prices. The standard window for all time projections is +/- 1 week, with the exception of the Amanita pivots (+/- 1-2 days). of the release of this article just a coincidence, as already mentioned earlier in the subscriber area, now (June 2005) the Amanita consolidation since 2003 should be coming to an end, May still was/is critical. Similar to the Superfund, Amanita Market Forecasting is heavily water-accentuated (with the signs Cancer and Pisces) and also to some degree fiery, so the Saturn transit through the water-sign Cancer mid-2003 until mid-2005 has been rather challenging. Unsurprisingly, the best performance was achieved when Jupiter as the traditional "benefic" and antagonist of Saturn was passing through the water-sign Cancer in 2002, the first half of 2003 with Jupiter in the fire-sign Leo was also very satisfying.

While the time forecasts are certainly most-known it's possible to make other distinctions, too, e.g. finding out the resonance with specific markets, countries, trading styles, sectors etc. If you are an active trader you will have possibly noticed that you have a better connection with some markets or individual stocks where trading is easy - while others are constantly annoying you and you are struggling but the results are not really satisfying. This preference is to some degree reflected in your chart (though in this area there is still a lot of research necessary).

Amanita Market Forecasting is characterized by  1. Jupiter- 2. Neptune - 3. moonThe moon has a major impact on the markets, the full moon is more important than the new moon. (signs: 1. Cancer 2. Pisces, Sagittarius) which shows a preference for the associated markets: commodities in general, especially the agriculturals (moonThe moon has a major impact on the markets, the full moon is more important than the new moon.), precious metals (Jupiter, Neptune), currencies (Neptune), oil (Neptune). The name "amanita" is derived from the Latin "amanita muscaria", the fly agaric; mushrooms are symbolized by the planet Neptune which rules Pisces and is exalted in Cancer.

However, no (conducive) connection exists to the stock markets (primarily ruled by the Taurus, and secondarily also by Scorpio). According to the tests of Bill Meridian the Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius stocks (that start trading when the sun is in the sign Sagittarius) are together with the Capricorn stocks the NYSE underperformers.

Frankly, without the strong demand for the stock indices the equities wouldn't be covered at all, simply because the input-output relationship is much worse than for other markets. A breakdown of the performance of the Amanita trades confirms this, the average profit in the stock markets has only been little more than the half of the other markets which is even more astonishing because the stock indices receive at least the double attention than the other markets, have been researched considerably more and in this field most experience has been gained... You can bet that without these intensified efforts the results would be even worse, perhaps only 1/4 of the "resonant" markets. Experience has shown that in times with difficult constellations you hardly make profits in difficult markets but mainly in the "easy" ones (if at all).

This graph displays the average profit per trade and market: