At the beginning, the Amanita trades (ATs) launched in the final weeks of 2001 were the first quantitative performance measure because the signals for the rating agency "Timer Digest" and the strategic asset allocation were not introduced before 2003. In 2003 the Amanita system experienced major changes, above all the strategic (long-term) positions were separated from the tactical (intermediate-term) trades, that's why strictly speaking the performance measures until 2003 can't be fully compared to the performance since 2004. This also explains why "on paper" 2002-3 had a so much higher performance than the later years: the missing strategic profits of 20-30% per year (mainly the high holdings in the commodity holdings) that were still included until 2003. If the original (2001) methodology were still applied, then the performance number would already be higher than 200%. The intermediate-term Amanita trades are much less important then the long-term Amanita asset allocation. Time table:
* late 2001: launch with 4 markets (stock indices, precious metals, currencies & bonds)
* 2003: introdcution of the strategic allocation, important strategy change in the Amanita trades (ATs)
* 2004: introduction of oil as the 5th market, introduction of Amanita constellations to optimize the performance
* 2005: introduction of Amanita internal forecasts to optimize the performanceintroduction of Amanita internal forecasts to optimize the performance
* 2005: introduction of grains as the 6th market
* late March 2006: introduction of trade horoscopes to optimize the performance

Amanita-Trades ATs 2001-2007

 

The Amanita Trades (AT) concept is a trading aid independent of specific trading instruments and there is no "normal" portfolio  because the subscribers of Amanita Market Forecasting are on all five continents (the two main markets are Central Europe and the United States) and almost all trade in their home countries.

Example: almost no US trader knows what to do with German warrants, and very few Europeans trade futures or options in New York. Most market participants trade futures, options, warrants, certificates, ETFs etc in their home country. To guarantee the highest independency from specific instruments cash resp. spot prices are used whenever possible (with the exception of commodities and where cash/ spot prices aren't common). All trades are hypothetical.

The performance number does not include the costs entailed by trading specific securities (e.g. commissions, spreads), but on the other hand there is no interest calculated on cash.

I'd like to explain that with the aid of the example AT#47-1:

AT #47-1: EUR/USD

direction: long EUR/ short USD
time target: August-October
price target
: 1.29
position size: 0.5
volatility multiplier: 3
rating of the trade horoscope: 3 amanitas
#47-1a 5/18/04: bought 33% @ 1.198
#47-1b 5/21/04: bought 33% @ 1.210 (buy-stop triggered)
#47-1c 6/3/04: sold 33% @ 1.220
#47-1d: buy 33% @ buy-stop 1.225
position now: 33%
stop: 1.176
last change 6/3: #47-1c, stop trailed

Each line now in detail:

All trades are either sent out in real-time by e-mail or are triggered by limit or stop orders. Prices are always intraday to the "Timer Digest" signals that are always closing prices.

Types of stop orders used (always based on intraday prices):

Practical implementation of Amanita trades

Derivatives
With the exception of stocks  I do not suggest specific securities, and particularly no derivates (futures, options, warrants) because derivates are very risky and can entail a loss of 100%. They should only be traded by speculators that are aware of the risks and are able to select the right instrument out of dozens or even hundreds.

Disclaimer
All information and forecasts provided here have been researched to the best of my knowledge but are by no means a solicitation to buy or sell stocks or other securities. I do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and I am not responsible for any errors or omissions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. All transactions in the financial markets are risky. Any liability for losses or damages is excluded.

6/24/02

5/15/02

13

Nasdaq 100

+12.78%

1

1

40%

+5.11%

Explanation:  Example AT#13 (dark greyrow in the table below)
column 1 "6/24/02" (closed): date the position was exited (D/M/YY)
column 2 "5/15/02" (entry): date the position was entered (D/M/YY)
column 3 "13" (AT#): number of the trade
column 4 "Nasdaq 100" (market): this trade was based on the Nasdaq 100 index
column 5 "+12.78%"(result): a raw profit of 12.78% was achieved
column 6 "1" (mul. = volatility multiplier): for a very volatile index such as the NDX the mul. was set to 1 (before the trade was entered)
column 7 "1" (size = position size): normal position size 1
column 8 "40%" (%): when the position was closed only 40% were bought (100% are targeted but not always reached, depending on the market).
column 9 "+5.11%" (+/- = net profit or loss): is the product of the values of columns 5, 6, 7, and 8, in this case 12.78% * 1 * 1 * 0.4 = +5.11%

1.closed

2.entry

3.AT#

4.market

5.result

6.mul.

7.size

8.%

9.+/ -

12/7/07

10/17/07

108-1

Bonds USZ7

+4.07%

3

1

50%

+6.11%

11/9/07

9/5/07

105-2

USD/JPY

-1.28%

3

0.5

1

-1.92%

11/9/07

11/6/07

107-1

Nasdaq 100

-3.92%

1

0.5

50%

-0.98%

9/27/07

9/17/07

106-2

oil CLZ7

-5.20%

1

0.5

50%

-1.30%

7/3/07

6/14/07

98-2

bonds TYU7

+1.24%

3

0.5

50%

+0.93%

7/2/07

6/21/07

102-1

soybeans SX7

-5.33%

1

0.5

50%

-1.33%

6/8/07

3/5/07

100-1

Silver cash

-2.06%

1

1

100%

-2.06%

5/9/07

3/28/07

98-1

Bonds TYM07

-0.37%

3

1

87%

-0.93%

4/9/07

3/19/07

94-2

Soybeans SX07

+0%

1

0.5

33%

+0.00%

3/27/07

3/14/07

96-1

Oil CLM07

-5.08%

1

0.5

33%

-0.85%

3/26/07

1/5/07

89-1

 Bonds TY

+0.04%

3

1

150%

+0.16%

3/16/07

1/31/07

92-2

EUR/USD

+1.59%

3

0.5

75%

+1.79%

2/14/07

2/6/07

94-1

Soybeans

+1.39%

1

1

33%

+0.46%

2/28/07

2/9/07

95-1

Gold

+0.15%

1

0.5

50%

+0.04%

1/31/07

10/23/06

88-1

Wheat

+7.10%

1

1

75%

+5.89%

1/16/07

1/4/07

88-3

Corn

-8.89%

1

1

50%

-4.44%

12/14/06

12/8/06

90-2

S&P 500

-0.85%

1

0.5

50%

-0.21%

12/6/06

9/19/06

86-1

JPY/USD

+0.34%

3

1

66%

+0.67%

12/4/06

8/1/06

83-1

gold

-3.76%

1

0.5

116%

-2.18%

10/19/06

8/9/06

84-1

T-Note TYZ06

+0.01%

3

1

83%

+0.02%

10/3/06

7/31/06

82-1

oil CL06Z/ CL07H

-7.43%

1

0.5

50%

-1.86%

9/27/06

8/31/06

85-1

S&P 500

-2.76%

2

0.5

33%

-0.92%

9/26/06

7/7/06

81-1

Corn C06Z

+1.89%

1

1

33%

+0.63%

8/25/06

6/1/06

72-1

JPY/USD

+2.59%

3

0.5

66%

+2.56%

7/18/06

3/6/06

74-1

S&P 500

+0.36%

2

0.5

166%

+0.60%

7/6/06

6/1/06

80-1

US-Bond

+0.19%

3

0.5

66%

+0.19%

7/5/06

6/15/06

79-2

Gold

+8.55%

1

0.5

50%

+2.14%

7/3/06

4/20/06

77-1

Soybeans

+1.35%

1

1

50%

+0.68%

4/1006

3/3/06

73-1

Wheat

+4.87%

1

0.5

50%

+1.22%

4/7/06

3/24/06

78-1

T-Bond

-2.48%

3

1

25%

-1.86%

3/17/06

2/22/06

76-1

Silver

-6.23%

1

0.5

25%

-0.78%

3/3/06

3/12/06

71-2

T-Notes

+0.37%

3

0.5

25%

+0.37%

2/10/06

1/25/06

71-1

T-Bond US06M

+0.09%

3

1

50%

+0.13%

1/16/06

1/9/06

68-1

Gold

-3.27%

2

0.5

25%

-0.82%

1/30/06

10/17/05

66-1

Oil

+8.83%

1

1

75%

+0.62%

1/9/06

11/30/05

70-1

S&P 500

-2.34%

2

0.5

75%

-1.75%

1/9/06

12/12/05

67-2

EUR/USD

+1.51%

3

0.5

25%

+0.57%

11/8/05

11/2/05

67-1

EUR/USD

-2.21%

3

0.75

50%

-2.48%

11/4/05

10/17/05

65-1

S&P 500

+2.86%

1

0.5

25%

+0.36%

10/14/05

8/16/05

61-1

Wheat

+.3.10%

1

075

75%

+1.78%

10/5/05

9/1/05

62-1

Silver

+4.93%

1

0.5

50%

+1.23%

10/3/05

9/21/05

64-1

Bonds

-1.90%

2

1

25%

-0.95%

19/9/05

9/6/05

63-1

Oil

+3.95%

1

0.75

25%

+0.74%

9/9/05

8/11/05

60-1

S&P 500

+0.69%

2

0.5

50%

+0.35%

 8/11/05

7/28/05

59-2

Gold

-2.58%

2

0.5

50%

-1.29%

6/23/05

6/3/05

56-2

Gold

+3.06%

2

0.5

50%

+1.53%

6/22/05

5/18/05

58-1

Brent Oil

+10.0%

1

0.75

50%

+3.75%

5/18/05

4/15/05

55-1

S&P 500

-2.88%

1

1

50%

-1.44%

5/13/05

4/7/05

56-1

EUR/USD

-2.48%

3

0.5

50%

-1.86%

5/10/05

4/5/05

57-1

Brent Oil

+4.42%

1

0.5

75%

+1.66%

3/14/05

 2/22/05

54-2

HUI

+3.27%

1

1

50%

+1.64%

3/11/05

12/3/04

52-1

Brent Oil

+12.58%

1

1

100%

+12.58%

2/8/05

12/28/04

54-1

HUI

-7.01%

1

1

60%

-4.21%

2/7/05

10/15/04

50-1

EUR/USD

+2.99%

2

1

33%

+1.97%

2/4/05

11/26/04

53-1

TYX (T-Bond)

-5.86%

1

1

20%

-1.17%

12/14/04

12/7/04

51-1

S&P 500

-1.43%

2

1

35%

-1.00%

10/13/04

9/24/04

49-1

S&P 500

+0.19%

2

1

75%

+0.14%

8/27/04

8/4/04

46-3

S&P 500

-1.4%

1

1

40%

-0.56%

8/20/04

7/1/04

48-1

Brent Oil

+30.5%

1

1

10%

+3.05%

8/2/04

6/1/04

46-2

S&P 500

+1.3%

1

1

70%

+0.91%

7/23/04

5/18/04

47-1

EUR/USD

+1.29%

3

0.5

35%

+0.45%

5/12/04

5/6/04

46-1

Nasdaq 100

+0.2%

1

1

33%

+0.07%

4/28/04

2/9/04

45-2

Gold

-4.25%

2

0.5

50%

-3.19%

4/13/04

2/9/04

45-1

HUI

-6.14%

1

0.5

40%

-1.23%

3/2/04

2/4/04

43-1

EUR/USD

-3.10%

3

1

65%

-6.05%

1/16/04

1/9/04

44-1

T-Bonds

-2.54%

1

1

25%

-0.64%

1/8/04

10/10/03

40-1

Euro Bund Future

-0.46%

5

0.5

50%

-0.57%

12/10/03

11/12/03

42-1

Gold

2.30%

2

0.5

70%

+1.61%

12/10/03

11/12/03

42-2

HUI

0%

1

0.5

55%

0%

11/3/03

9/25/03

39-1

S&P 500

-2.33%

1

1

100%

-2.33%

11/12/03

10/24/03

41-1

EUR/USD

+0.82%

4

0.5

70%

+1.15%

9/30/03

7/23/03

39-2

Gold

+8.62%

3

0.5

80%

+10.35%

9/24/03

7/17/03

39-1

HUI

+28.63

1

1

65%

+18.61%

7/16/03

7/1/03

37-1

Euro Bund Future

-1.98%

4

0.5

33%

-1.31%

7/7/03

6/27/03

36-1

DAX

-2.88%

1

1

25%

-0.72%

6/26/03

4/9/03

34-1

Euro Bund Future

+2.50%

4

0.5

33%

+2.08%

6/19/03

6/11/03

35-1

EUR/USD

-1.11%

4

0.5

50%

-1.11%

6/10/03

3/25/03

32-1

HUI

+19.25%

1

0.5

100%

+9.62%

6/10/03

3/27/03

33-1

Gold

+9.09%

3

0.5

100%

+13.63%

6/2/03

4/11/03

35-1

S&P 500

-7.98%

1

1

65%

-5.19%

3/30/03

3/14/03

31-1

Nasdaq 100

-1.15%

1

0.5

60%

-1.15%

3/14/03

1/10/03

30-1

DAX

+21.90%

1

1

25%

+5.48%

3/12/03

10/24/02

27-1

EUR/ USD

+6.16%

5

1

105%

+32.32%

2/10/03

12/11/02

29-1

HUI

-1.26%

1

0.5

60%

-0.38%

2/10/03

12/9/02

28-1

Gold

+3.79%

3

0.5

40%

+4.83%

11/22/02

11/13/02

26-3

DAX

-7.37%

1

1

40%

-2.95%

11/5/02

10/25/02

26-2

DAX

-6.21%

1

1

20%

-1.24%

10/16/02

9/26/02

24

LIFFE: LJB

-1.19%

5

0.5

40%

-1.19%

10/16/02

10/15/02

26-1

DAX

-1.49%

1

1

20%

-0.30%

10/15/02

8/27/02

22

Nasdaq 100

+0.80%

1

1

100%

+0.80%

10/15/02

4/23/02

11

Gold

+3.86%

5

0.5

165%

+15.93%

10/5/02

8/29/02

23

HUI

-11.1%

1

0.5

25%

-1.39%

10/2/02

8/27/02

21

Silver

-1.80%

2

0.5

30%

-0.54%

10/1/02

9/26/02

25-3

NYSE:FNM

-3.24%

1

0.5

35%

-0.57%

9/25/02

9/25/02

25-1

NYSE:FNM

-3.13%

1

1

35%

-1.10%

9/25/02

9/25/02

25-1

NYSE:JPM

-2.63%

1

1

15%

-0.40%

8/14/02

8/2/02

20

Silver

-2.61%

2

0.5

40%

-2.09%

7/30/02

2/1/02

9

Silver

+2.68%

2

0.5

100%

+2.68%

7/26/02

7/23/02

12-8

NASDAQ: PAAS

-5.16%

1

1

5%

-0.26%

7/26/02

7/23/02

12-6

NASDAQ: HGMCY

-15.97%

1

1

10%

-1.60%

7/24/02

7/22/02

12-7

NYSE: AEM

-18.1%

1

1

10%

-1.81%

7/26/02

4/3/02

12-4

NASDAQ: PAAS

+5.36%

1

1

25%

+1.34%

7/24/02

4/3/02

12-3

NYSE: MDG

+2.15%

1

1

25%

+0.54%

7/15/02

7/10/02

19

EUR/ USD

-1.72%

5

0.5

50%

-2.15%

7/15/02

7/2/02

18-1

NASDAQ:HOTT

-6.21

1

1

5%

-0.31%

7/11/02

6/26/02

17

DAX

-1.63%

2

1

55%

-1.79%

7/3/02

7/2/02

18-2

NYSE:EL

-2.98%

1

1

5%

-0.15%

6/24/02

5/15/02

13

Nasdaq 100

+12.78%

1

1

40%

+5.11%

6/21/02

6/13/02

16-2

Xetra: 840221

-8.18%

1

1.5

7%

-0.86%

6/21/02

6/13/02

16-1

Xetra: 806330

 -5.33%

1

1.5

10%

-0.80%

6/21/02

5/21/02

14

JPY/ USD

-1.37%

5

1

30%

-2.06%

6/18/02

6/13/02

16-3

NASDAQ:MGAM

-25.47%

1

1.5

5%

-1.91%

6/14/02

5/30/02

15

Euro Bund Future

-0.68%

5

1.5

40%

-2.04%

6/10/02

4/4/02

12-5

NYSE:AEM

+9.88%

1

1

15%

+1.48%

6/10/02

4/4/02

12-2

NASDAQ:HGMCY

+27.12%

1

1

20%

+5.42%

5/20/02

4/18/02

12-1

NYSE:NEM

0%

1

1

10%

0%

5/15/02

3/7/02

10

Nasdaq 100

+4.70%

1

1

150%

+7.05%

2/20/02

1/29/02

8

Euro Bund Future

+0.15%

5

1.5

60%

+0.68%

2/20/02

12/11/01

7

Nasdaq 100

+13.11%

1

1.5

75%

+14.75%

1/18/02

11/8/01

3

Gold

+3.18%

5

1

100%

+15.90%

1/3/02

10/23/01

1

Euro/ Dollar

+0.33%

5

1.5

100%

+2.48%

cumulative profits since 1/1/2002 until 12/31/2007:

+146.0%